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MorningSignal
August 24, 2026

Circle went public at $31, hit $299, crashed to $94. Cathie Wood kept buying. Brevan Howard increased its stake by 1,750 percent. What do they know?

June 5 2026. Circle Internet Group lists on NYSE at $31 per share. Intraday surge of 160 percent. One of the hottest IPO debuts of the year. USDC processes $21.5 trillion in transaction volume in a single quarter. Up 263 percent year-on-year. That is more than Visa does in a full year. Stock hits $299. Then insider selling starts. Morgan Stanley downgrades. Valuation concerns. Stock crashes 60 percent to $94. While retail is selling, ARK Invest is buying. Brevan Howard increases its stake by 1,750 percent during the drawdown. TIKR's model targets $368 by 2030. The bear case: every Fed rate cut reduces Circle's reserve income by approximately $192 million annually. The entire business model is sensitive to interest rates. The bull case: $21.5 trillion in quarterly stablecoin transaction volume is not a niche business. It is financial infrastructure at Visa-level scale. Is Circle at $94 the buying opportunity that the $31 IPO was not?

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chun lichun li· Aug 24

The interest rate risk is the thing I cannot get past. If the Fed cuts 100 basis points Circle loses roughly $770 million in annual reserve income. That is not a small number relative to their current revenue base. The bull case depends on the payments network revenue growing fast enough to offset rate cuts. That is a real risk, not a theoretical one.