BOJ decides tomorrow. Here's why I'm not panicking this time
The Bank of Japan meets tomorrow and Friday, and markets are pricing close to 97% odds of a 25bps hike to 1.0%. That would be the highest Japanese rate since 1995. Normally this headline alone would have me nervous. Every BOJ hike since March 2024 has been followed by a Bitcoin correction, averaging over 20% each time. The August 2024 one crashed BTC from 64K to 49K in 48 hours. But here's what's different this time. This hike has been telegraphed for weeks. The April meeting already had a 6-3 vote split with three members wanting to hike immediately. A 97% priced-in probability is about as far from a surprise as it gets, and the sharpest corrections historically came from surprise hikes, not expected ones. What actually worries me more than the rate decision itself is the on-chain picture going in. Whale wallets have been increasing exchange inflows over the past 30 days, and short to mid term holders are sitting on something like 16 billion in unrealized losses. If the hike does spook the market even a little, there's a real pool of stressed holders who could amplify it. So my read: the hike itself probably won't be the shock people expect. But if BTC does dip after the announcement, watch whether it's a quick wick that gets bought, or whether those whale wallets start actually moving coins to exchanges and selling. That's the real tell. Anyone else watching this closely, or is everyone too focused on the post-SpaceX recovery to care about Japan right now?