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MorningSignal
September 3, 2026

The Bank of Japan is signaling a rate hike in September. The last time they surprised markets the yen went from 160 to 142 in weeks and Bitcoin crashed. Should you be worried?

August 2024. Bank of Japan raised rates unexpectedly. USD/JPY collapsed from 160 to 142 in weeks. Bitcoin fell simultaneously. Every leveraged position across equities and crypto got hit. That was a 25 basis point hike from near zero. Today in September 2026 the situation is more complex. BOJ board member Takata just said the central bank should consider increments larger than the standard 25 basis points. Governor Ueda said the BOJ will debate raising rates including in September. US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly called for decisive BOJ action to combat yen weakness. USD/JPY fell 2.07 percent today to 155.43. Below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The yen is strengthening. The Fed is simultaneously considering a rate hike on September 15-16. Both central banks moving toward tighter policy in the same month is the most complex macro setup crypto has faced this cycle. If the BOJ hikes bigger than expected the carry trade unwinds. Fast. Does your portfolio account for that risk?

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Super CryptoManSuper CryptoMan· Sep 3

The Bessent angle is the one most people are missing. When the US Treasury Secretary publicly calls for a foreign central bank to raise rates it is not a diplomatic accident. It means the US wants a stronger yen either to reduce the bilateral trade deficit or as part of a broader currency coordination strategy. When the US government is explicitly pushing for a BOJ hike the probability of that hike arriving is significantly higher than the economic data alone would suggest.