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Ex Crypto
September 3, 2026

Bitcoin just formed a golden cross. Last time this happened in May 2020 Bitcoin went up 312 percent in a year. Should you buy?

The 50-day moving average just crossed above the 200-day moving average for Bitcoin. The golden cross. History since 2012: 12 times this has formed. Three of those produced massive sustained gains averaging 250 percent over the following year. Nine of them reversed quickly or barely lasted two months before a death cross formed again. May 2020 golden cross: Bitcoin gained 312 percent. October 2015: rode Bitcoin to $19,800. February 2012: gained 306 percent in a year. But the current macro backdrop is complicated. Fed rate hike probability is at 62 to 66 percent for September 15. Treasury yields near 4.8 percent. Oil above $92. Historically the signal works best when the macro environment is supportive not when it is fighting a potential rate hike in the same week. USDT dominance is simultaneously forming a death cross which traders read as capital rotating out of stablecoins into crypto. That alignment gives this golden cross more backing than most. Are you buying this signal or waiting for clearer macro confirmation?

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Super CryptoManSuper CryptoMan· Sep 3

Buying but sizing carefully. The golden cross alone is not enough for me to add aggressively. The USDT dominance death cross aligning at the same time is the detail that makes this setup more interesting than the nine times the signal failed. I added 20 percent of my planned position today and will add the rest after NFP Friday shows which direction the rate hike probability moves.