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oliversch
oliversch
August 24, 2026

Bitcoin just broke above its 200-day moving average for the first time since the October 2025 all-time high. Is the bear market officially over?

For ten months Bitcoin could not close above $69,000. That was the 200-day moving average. The line that separates bull market structure from bear market structure in every technical analysis framework. This week Bitcoin broke it. Reached $79,200. Settled around $77,025 as of August 22. August ETF inflows hit $1.92 billion, the highest since October 2025. Bitcoin dominance climbed back to 60 percent. $2.7 billion in shorts were liquidated. The July PCE inflation report drops August 26. The CLARITY Act vote is September 15. Is this the moment you have been waiting for to buy, or is this the bull trap before the final leg down that some analysts still project toward $46,000 in October?

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chun lichun li· Aug 24

The 200-day moving average break is the signal I was waiting for. Not the only signal but the necessary one. I have been DCA-ing for six months and this week I added my largest single position of the cycle. History says buying after the 200-day reclaim and holding 12 months has never produced a loss for Bitcoin.