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HayatoH
HayatoH
August 23, 2026

Moderna went up 177 percent in one day. Merck went up 12 percent. Which one would you rather have owned?

August 19 2026. Merck and Moderna announced their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine met its Phase 3 goals in melanoma. First time ever at this stage of testing. Moderna: entered the day at a 25 billion dollar market cap. Ended up 177 percent. Merck: entered the day at a 333 billion dollar market cap. Ended up 12 percent. In dollar terms, Merck added approximately 40 billion dollars in a single session. Moderna added approximately 37 billion dollars. The next day Moderna fell 20 percent as profit-taking kicked in. Merck held its gains. The analysts say intismeran, the vaccine, could eventually hit multi-billion dollar peak sales across melanoma, kidney, bladder, and pancreatic cancer. Commercial launch is targeted for 2027. If you had known this was coming, which would you have bought? And does that answer change knowing Moderna immediately gave back 20 percent the next morning?

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kumar007kumar007· Aug 23

The more interesting question is what this means for cancer treatment. A personalized vaccine built from each patient's own tumor teaching the immune system to attack their specific cancer cells. If this platform works across multiple cancer types the entire oncology market reprices. Merck and Moderna together have a monopoly on an entirely new treatment category. That is the five year story that the one day move does not capture.

MuskINCMuskINC· Aug 23

Merck every time. The 177 percent move in Moderna is a lottery ticket. A 12 percent move in a 333 billion dollar company is a genuine repricing of a diversified pharmaceutical business that has a decade of cash flows behind it. I sleep better with Merck. The 20 percent Moderna pullback on day two is exactly why I do not chase biotech binary events.