MediaCrypto
BTCBTC$79,651.80-1.80%ETHETH$2,451.77-1.92%BNBBNB$718.60-0.61%LTCLTC$50.77-0.94%ADAADA$0.2101-4.93%XRPXRP$1.39-4.09%LINKLINK$11.62-1.65%DOGEDOGE$0.0845-3.38%SOLSOL$101.67-2.35%POLPOL$0.0927-1.37%BTCBTC$79,651.80-1.80%ETHETH$2,451.77-1.92%BNBBNB$718.60-0.61%LTCLTC$50.77-0.94%ADAADA$0.2101-4.93%XRPXRP$1.39-4.09%LINKLINK$11.62-1.65%DOGEDOGE$0.0845-3.38%SOLSOL$101.67-2.35%POLPOL$0.0927-1.37%
Back to feed
oliversch
oliversch
August 20, 2026

Microsoft is down 19 percent this year despite Azure growing 40 percent. Does that make sense to you?

The numbers do not add up on paper. Azure growing 40 percent. AI revenue hitting $37 billion annually, up 123 percent. Commercial backlog at $627 billion, up 99 percent. 54 out of 57 analysts say Buy. And yet the stock is down 19 percent year-to-date while the S&P 500 is up 7 percent. Wells Fargo just put a $700 target on it. The stock is at $503. The market is pricing in AI capex anxiety over actual business performance. Whether that is rational or an opportunity depends entirely on whether you think $130 to $145 billion in annual capex will generate returns or destroy margins permanently. What do you think is happening with Microsoft right now?

1 comments

1 Comment

Sign in to leave a comment.

P
pro trader· Aug 20

The market did the same thing to Amazon when it started spending heavily on AWS infrastructure. Everyone said the margins would never come back. AWS is now a $169 billion annualized run rate business with 39 percent margins. I think Microsoft in 2026 looks a lot like Amazon in 2015.